Maria Bertzeletou: The shortage of available ships has spread across the Atlantic route market. Swiss Maxis lets the latest rise in freight and Afro Maxis are gaining strength as charters divide cargoes and look for alternatives. These voyages compete for a fleet tied up in longer journeys, transfers and delays. Even as oil flows recover, the freight bill stands high. Today, we followed at pressure through West Africa, Venezuela and the US Gulf. We look at why cheaper US crude can still be difficult to export and what would actually bring more ships back into the market. Welcome to The Current Intelligence. I am Maria Bergeletu joined by George Hakilariou, freight analyst at Signal Maritime, back with us for a second time. George, what has changed in episode four?

GS: Atlantic vessel availability has become a stronger driver of freight in its own right. The late September indications show Suez Maxus leading the move, with Afram Maxus gaining ground. The gulf disruption still matters, but the Atlantic cargo programme is now completing for a fleet that has not been adequately replenished.

Maria Bertzeletou: Let's start with the fleet sorties across the Atlantic. Where the ships went and why they haven't come back. What does the vessel picture tell you George?

GS: The Western Fleet became smaller across all three crewed tanker classes. VLCC saw the largest proportional reduction over the reporting window. More ships were positioned in the east, while the return of available tonnage was insufficient to replace them. That leaves Atlantic charters competing for fewer suitable positions.

Maria Bertzeletou: Where does the soap up first in freight?

GS: A renewed West African inquiry reduced the prompt VLCC list towards the end of September. To as much as let the sharper move with very strong fixtures on Atlantic routes into Europe. The strength of those voyages reflects competition for ships well beyond the Gulf loading areas. Owners have stronger employment alternatives across the Basin.

Maria Bertzeletou: Is there enough donuts coming back to Egypt?

GS: The latest VLCC ballast picture still looks limited, although Suezmac's arrivals are rebuilding. We also see vessels tied up in transfers or committed to eastbound voyages, delaying their return to the Atlantic market. I would keep the near-term view firm while checking each loading window. US Gulf and Latin American VLCC inquiry has been uneven. So another increase there still needs fresh cargo demand.

Maria Bertzeletou: The pressure on Latter Tankers is now spreading to Afromaxes, giving owners more room to push freight rates higher. How is that pressure reaching Afromaxes?

GS: As larger ships become harder to secure, charters split suitable cargoes into smaller parcels. 2S Max strength therefore creates room for AFRA Maxes to gain. Our chartering outlook sees further farming potential with the US Gulf especially exposed. may be needed to move the same cargo volume. depending on how the program is divided. because ships heading towards the US Gulf are not necessarily available for the next cargo. The Afromax list fell by 36 % between September 28th and October 2nd, even while the wider ballast count was rising. Demand also depends on the availability of VLCCs and Suezmaxes for US Gulf exports. Depending on how those cargoes are allocated, Aframax requirements can range from 70 to more than 80 cargoes in a given month. Even with ships ballasting from Europe, demand is outpacing available tonnage. Strong neighboring markets also give owners other employment options, which influence whether they ballast to the US Gulf without a cargo secured. So we need to look at when those ships will arrive. and whether they remain available. More ballasters do not necessarily mean enough ships for the loading program.

Maria Bertzeletou: Cool clean tankers provide quick relief.

GS: LR2s have already added substantial capacity to the Aframax market. More than 100 switched from clean products into dirty trading over the past year, with a wave of switching after March. But the scope for further moves now looks more limited. The LR2 market has also strengthened east of Suez, reducing the incentive to leave clean trading. And the pool of vessels that could realistically switch appear smaller. So that source of additional AFRAMAX supply is less readily available to ease the current pressure.

Maria Bertzeletou: Does the same outlook apply in Europe?

GS: We expect more activity in the North Sea and Med markets after a couple of quieter weeks. This is a forward view. The latest observed European afro max rates have eased slightly while the US Gulf has strengthened.

Maria Bertzeletou: Now back to the Gulf, Ormuz and the Saudi bypass. More oil is moving, so why are more ships free? What did the last week of September tell us about Ormuz?

GS: More crude reached the market, but shipping capacity remained occupied. Regional exports recovered above the pre-war average through several routes, including the Red Sea and transfers outside Hormuz. Tatl work and waiting continued to tie up tankers. Gals to China VLCC earnings were still above $1 million a day at the start of October. More oil moving has not yet produced a normal supply of available ships.

Maria Bertzeletou: Why do the vessel counts look so different from the oil flows?

GS: because visible ice crossings miss part of the movement when ships go dark or signals are disrupted. A low visible count cannot establish the total number of transits. And the regional export total cannot establish how freely or moves itself is operating. We need to follow the cargo through the whole voyage and count the same barrel only once.

Maria Bertzeletou: has a so the pipeline restart brought relief.

GS: YAML loadings resumed after the pipeline restart, which is a real change from the previous episode. But another reported interruption at YAML in October first showed how fragile that recovery remains. For freight, sustained loading reliability matters more than the restart announcement. A ZEBound cargo also faces a separate onward route decision around Babel-Mantepe. Relief comes when those operations shorten vessel cycles. Additional loadings can initially absorb more ships.

Maria Bertzeletou: Could the Saudi pipeline restart free up more ships for the Atlantic market?

GS: That depends on their next employment. Vessels around city career could instead load and sail east around the Cape. Those longer voyages would delay their return to the Atlantic, even as oil flows recover. I would look at where those ships are heading next before treating their start as a relief for freight.

Maria Bertzeletou: Let's turn to Venezuela and the Caribbean, where sifting cargo destinations are altering voyage lengths and time-caring demand. How does Venezuela strengthen the Caribbean story?

GS: Tempers destination mix became more regional. The US took about 58 % of Venezuela exports and shipments into Caribbean storage also increased. Total Venezuelan exports fell. So the stronger US connection came from redistribution. That is why destination data matters alongside the headline export total.

Maria Bertzeletou: Does a bigger US share automatically mean more tankier demand?

GS: It supports regional cargo employment, but shorter voyages can reduce the time its cargo occupies a ship compared with the voyage to Asia. Storage and transfers may add handling or waiting. We have to measure both effects. A storage arrival also has to be traced onward before we can call it final consumption.

Maria Bertzeletou: Why is the US importing this oil while exporting it so?

GS: Many US Gulf refineries are equipped to process Venezuela's heavy high-shelf recruit, while lighter-use crude moves to overseas buyers. That supports tanker activity both in- out-of-the-region. Where vessels are suitable for both trades, those cargoes can compete for the same available ships. But an inbound vessel does not automatically become available for an export cargo. timing and cargo requirements still matter.

Maria Bertzeletou: flows?

GS: Yes, although the ability to absorb freight differs by cargo and buyer, a seller may accept a deeper crude discount to keep the delivered cargo competitive. Regional demand can therefore remain active at high freight levels, but I would watch whether discounts continue to support the next purchase.

Maria Bertzeletou: Staying on this side of the Atlantic, the US exports spike. Big volumes and the loading constraints behind them. Can't the US sustain that recent up in crude exports? once

GS: one strong loading week does not establish a sustained export program. US weekly exports reached about 4.8 million bars a day in mid-September, then fell back. Domestic refineries were also competing for crude, and expensive freight affected which overseas sales worked. The US has demonstrated that it can move large volumes. Maintaining them is a different commercial question.

Maria Bertzeletou: Where does infrastructure become part of the freight story?

GS: Many export cargoes need smaller tankers to assemble a VLCC load offshore. That work can tie up Afram access, which might otherwise take regional or transatlantic cargoes. Direct VLCC loading can simplify the operation, particularly for longer voyages to Asia. But the availability of suitable facilities and ships limits how efficiently that trade can expand.

Maria Bertzeletou: So higher US exports could reinforce Afro-Max strength.

GS: they could, especially where additional exports require more offshore loading work. The effect depends on how the cargo is assembled and how long the smaller ships remain occupied. I would track actual loadings and transfer activity before turning an export forecast into a freight forecast.

Maria Bertzeletou: We have looked at the constraints on moving more US crude. Now let's turn to the economics behind those exports. How do the East-West pipeline attacks connect to the WTI brand paradox?

GS: disrupted a Saudi route that had helped bypass our moves and raised uncertainty over dependable seaborne supply. At the same time, U.S. crude still needed an affordable voyage to reach overseas buyers. Those pressures can leave WTI at a large discount to Brent, while U.S. exports remain difficult to expand. The attacks are part of that explanation. inventories, refinery demand and the grade being sold also matter.

Maria Bertzeletou: How wide was the gap?

GS: Early on October 5th, the futures gap was about $11.50 a barrel. Our chartering briefing also saw opportunities for US crude into Europe, but identified vessel availability as the main constraint. Buyers still need the right ship at a freight level that preserves the cargo margin. An attractive oil differential can generate inquiry without immediately generating a loading.

Maria Bertzeletou: Do we see producers responding to that freight burden?

GS: The price gives us another example. Its November Arab light price to Asia was cut to $5 below the amount to buy benchmark. Prices for Europe moved higher while US prices were unchanged. My reading is that location and delivery economics are becoming more important in the competition for buyers. A cheaper selling price can help keep a cargo moving when transport remains expensive.

Maria Bertzeletou: Why are buyers still absorbing such high freight?

GS: The short answer is that broad demand destruction has not yet set in. Crude supply has recovered faster than product availability, supporting refining margins and the ability to pay for transport. Reported Chinese product export suspensions and rossus diesel restrictions add pressure on fuel supply. The tolerance for freight still differs by refinery and crude grade. China's next buying round is an important counterweight.

Maria Bertzeletou: Let's turn east to India where some refiners are taking on more of the phrase themselves. What is changing in the way India buys calf crude?

GS: Some refiners are buying Iraqi cargoes free on board and arranging the tankers themselves. Previously, producers or traders handle delivery and charge for that service. Buyers now weigh the cargo discount against the freight and insurance they must arrange, along with the voyage risks. Shipping procurement has become a more direct path of the crude buying decision.

Maria Bertzeletou: accept that responsibility now but you believe with the reason behind.

GS: The discounts create an incentive and returning gulf supplies give refiners more sourcing choices. But the economics depend on finding a ship willing and able to make the voyage. Changing the buying terms does not create an additional cargo by itself. It changes who has to secure the ship and absorb the delivery cost.

Maria Bertzeletou: How significant was the recovery in Indian buying?

GS: Six Gulf producers accounted for 39 % of India's September crude imports in the latest cited estimate. Iraq became the second largest individual supplier behind Russia. The Gulf recovered importance while refiners continued buying Russian crude. This is a change in the supply mix with implications for both voyage distance and the ships refiners need.

Maria Bertzeletou: What does that mean for tankers beyond the Gulf?

GS: More workable Gulf cargoes can sustain demand for ships serving India. They can also displace some longer distance purchases. So I would compare the origin of the next Indian cargo program with the ships committed to it. Higher imports and higher ton mile demand do not always move together.

Maria Bertzeletou: staying on the east side, there is China, where high oil prices and freight costs could slow the recovery in crude imports. Is China's crude buying also helping to keep freight rates firm?

GS: China looks more cautious. August imports recovered for a second month, but were still 23 % below a year earlier. September arrivals also reflected purchases made when oil was in the 80s. Those cargos do not tell us that refiners are willing to repeat the purchases with Brent above $100 and freight at these levels.

Maria Bertzeletou: how much has the outlook weakened.

GS: The fourth quarter import forecasts now sit around 9.2 to 9.3 million barrels a day compared with last year's average of 11.6 million. That is a forecast, but it puts a clear limit on the demand recovery we should assume.

Maria Bertzeletou: What is constraining the refiners?

GS: Independent refiners have less access to the cheaper Iranian and Venezuelan supply they rely on. Higher replacement costs squeeze margins and can lead to lower processing. State refiners are also cautious about expensive crude oil freight. The pressure therefore extends beyond one group of buyers.

Maria Bertzeletou: How does that change your freight view?

GS: It sets a limit on how far I would extend today's freight strength. The prompt vessel shortage and weaker future buying can coexist. We can expect refiners to still absorb high freight, but China shows why that tolerance is not unlimited. New purchasing decisions matter more for the next cargo program than ships already approaching discharge.

Maria Bertzeletou: Let's turn to oil supply and reserve releases. What does unchanged OPEC policy mean for the Cracow program?

GS: The seven participating countries retained their production targets for November, but their actual August output was still about 5 million barrels a day below February. The export recovery does not prove that production has recovered by the same amount. I would look at actual loading programs before assuming more cargoes are available for the Atlantic or the East.

Maria Bertzeletou: Reserv releases berries for freight.

GS: they can reduce seaborne purchases when stocks are released close to the consumer. That's the main downside identified around the G7's 100 million barrel program. But US reserve barrels could support exports or free other crude for export, depending on domestic refinery demand and the cargo economics. The origin and destination of the released barrels determine the shipping effects.

Maria Bertzeletou: So the same policy can have different effects across routes.

GS: Exactly. Less import buying in one region may coexist with more US loading activity. Neither effect follows automatically from the headline volume. We need the delivery schedule and actual cargo movements. Then we can assess which vessel classes gain employment and where capacity might be released.

Maria Bertzeletou: And finally the question that matters most, what the next cargo program will show and what will change the view. So George, what will make you change your firm athletic freight view?

GS: I would look for sustained replenishment of the Western Fleet and ships arriving faster than cargoes absorb them. Twismax and Aframax ballast counts are already rebuilding, so the test is the availability list for each loading window. Shorter transfer and waiting times would also release capacity. Those changes would tell us more than an isolated, softer fixture.

Maria Bertzeletou: What questions should viewers take into the next few days?

GS: Will returning ships rebuild the Atlantic lists or will the next cargo programs keep them tight? That links West African demand with US exports and Caribbean employment. The Aframax response is part of that wider fleet balance.

Maria Bertzeletou: Thank you.

GS: Thank you, Maria. The final word is yours.

Maria Bertzeletou: The next athletic freight move will be decided by which cargoes meet which ships and when. Schwarzschmack strength and the Afromachs response show how quickly a shortage in one part of the fleet can change the options for everyone else. That is what we will be watching. Whether returning vessels rebuild availability or whether new employment keeps the Atlantic tight. If you want to examine that balance for your market contact our research team at Signal. Bring us a route or a commercial question. We can show you how research, vessel data and machine learning help you follow the cargos and access the capacity behind the next freight negotiation. Where do you see the next pressure point? West Africa, the US Gulf or the Caribbean. Leave us a comment and tell us what you are seeing in your market. Follow the flows, follow the freight, follow the signal. Stay with us for the next episode of current intelligence. Thank you.